Global unemployment is expected to remain broadly unchanged through 2026, according to new analysis from the International Labour Organization. While this headline figure may appear reassuring, the organisation warns that apparent stability in labour markets is concealing deeper structural weaknesses, particularly around job quality, security and access to decent work.
The ILO notes that the global economy has absorbed recent economic shocks more effectively than many had anticipated. However, this resilience has not translated into better working conditions for a large share of the global workforce. Around 2.1 billion people are expected to remain in informal employment this year, often without reliable income, social protection or enforceable labour rights.
Young people continue to face disproportionate challenges. Unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 is forecast to reach 12.4% in 2025, with an estimated 260 million young people worldwide not in education, employment or training. The ILO cautions that advances in artificial intelligence and automation could intensify pressures, particularly for graduates in higher-income economies attempting to enter skilled professions.
Gender inequality also remains deeply embedded in labour markets, with women accounting for only about two-fifths of global employment. The ILO stresses that stable employment figures alone are not a meaningful measure of labour market health, highlighting the importance of national policy decisions that prioritise secure, fair and productive work.
Globally, unemployment is projected to remain close to 4.9% through to 2027, equating to roughly 186 million people out of work. Yet this stability is described as fragile. Ongoing trade uncertainty, including rising tariffs and shifts in global supply chains, risks suppressing wage growth across both skilled and unskilled roles. Regions such as Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and Europe are expected to be particularly exposed.
The report also underlines how dependent employment remains on international trade, with an estimated 465 million jobs linked to foreign demand through exports and related supply chains. Disruptions in global trade flows could therefore have far-reaching consequences for employment levels and income security.
Beyond unemployment figures, the ILO draws attention to the persistence of extreme in-work poverty. Nearly 300 million workers worldwide continue to live on less than $3 per day, reinforcing concerns that economic growth alone is failing to deliver meaningful improvements in living standards for many households.
The findings serve as a reminder that labour market stability should not be confused with progress. Without targeted action to improve job quality, wages and inclusion, current conditions risk entrenching inequality rather than resolving it.
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